Aim:

Learning to adapt to an uncertain future: linking genes, trees, people and processes for more resilient treescapes

A picture of three actors in a play Three Words for ForestForest pathway

Project Description

Understanding how effectively and quickly UK treescapes might adapt to climate change and new biotic threats is critical for guiding policy and human interventions.

We aimed to answer whether tree species can adapt fast enough in the face of these challenges, how human intervention might help, and how to make effective decisions when the future is uncertain.

The team measured adaptive changes in native and non-native tree species, modelled pest and disease spread through trade and developed tools to support resilient treescape management.

By studying genetic markers and adaptive traits, we investigated how well tree species can naturally adapt to changing conditions and whether human intervention, such as selective planting or assisted migration, might be necessary.

We also analysed 100 years of archival data on seed collections and imports, giving insights into how past choices have shaped the genetic diversity of today’s treescapes.

We also created a new verbatim theatre play that drew on interviews with 30 forest practitioners, ecologists and policy-makers from across the UK and Europe to understand the challenges of making decisions in the face of multiple risks and deep uncertainties.

What we discovered...

  • Many adaptive traits in trees show genetic variability and are inheritable, offering the potential for significant genetic change. However, the rate at which adaptation could be achieved varies across species and environments, suggesting that species- and location-specific strategies would strengthen resilience.
  • Planting can shift the genetic composition of a tree population, which may also affect insect and microbial communities. However, the optimal level of genetic diversity depends on balancing resilience and management objectives, such as timber production or habitat conservation.
  • Under the most pessimistic climate change scenarios, evolutionary modelling suggests that natural regeneration alone may not ensure treescape resilience.
  • We developed models to track the spread of pests and diseases via global and local trade networks, mapping risks across UK woodlands. The spatial risk framework will help to prioritise threats and target preventative measures in areas most vulnerable to outbreaks.
  • Arts-based approaches can play a critical role in enquiries into forest adaptation. They can foreground the emotional as well as practical factors that impact on decision-making, and offer opportunities for new kinds of informed dialogue, collaboration, problem-solving and knowledge sharing. The play revealed deep care for forests across sectoral differences, and multiple (sometimes conflicting) perspectives about how to grapple with the uncertainties of climate change and adaptation. It also indicated the desire and need for dialogue across different positions.

Project Lead(s)

Dr Stephen Cavers, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH)

Project Website

https://www.ceh.ac.uk/our-science/projects/newleaf